Lessons from the History of Globalization
How can one best dene globalization? Some might delineate it in terms of increased
international trade, limited restrictions on the movement of peoples, and light regulation on the
ow of capital. At least that was how politicians and pundits dened it at the start of the twentieth
century. At that time, Europeans did not require passports to travel from one country to another on
the continent, a situation restored only in the late 1990s. By 1913 the value of international trade
as a percentage of world GDP had reached a level the global economy would not replicate until
the last decade of the twentieth century. The economies of the United States and the German Reich
were expanding at unheard of rates. Western merchants were queuing up to supply China’s teeming
masses, as that country opened its markets for the rst time in centuries. Furthermore, the largest
migration – and a peaceful one at that – in history was taking place, as 25 million Europeans left
home, most immigrating to the United States.
The world also saw technological and scientic revolutions unequaled in history, which
in turn spawned revolutions in travel and communications. Travel across the Atlantic was now
a matter of days rather than weeks or months. Telegraph cables linked the continents for near
instantaneous communications. Railroads allowed travelers to cross continents in days rather
than months. The internal combustion engine was already impacting on travel by land, while
the appearance of the aircraft in 1903 suggested even greater possibilities. A complex web of
international agreements, such as the International Postal Union and the International Telegraph
Conventions, welded these changes together. Again as with today, many were not content to leave
the direction of the new world order to governments. In the rst decade of the century activists
formed 119 international organizations and 112 in the second decade.
For much of humanity, this was a time of hope and optimism. As early as the mid-
nineteenth century, John Bright, a British industrialist, argued that “nothing could be so foolish as
a policy of war for a trading nation. Any peace was better than the most successful war.” In 1911
a British journalist, Norman Angell, published a work titled The Great Illusion, which became an
international best seller. In it, he argued the expansion of global commerce had changed the nature
of wealth, which no longer would depend on control of territory or resources.
For Angell, the belief that military strength was the basis for security represented a dangerous
illusion. As for war itself, it represented a futile endeavor incapable of creating material wealth,
while putting much at risk. His arguments boiled down to a belief that the interlocking networks
of global trade made war impossible. In 1913, he published an improved edition to even greater
acclaim. Yet, within a year the First World War had broken out. The result of that conict in
political and economic terms was to smash globalization for the next seventy years. Angell had
been right about the absolute destructive effects of modern war. He had been wrong about human
nature and its passions.
Why is this important? Because these same arguments have regained currency. For
many, particularly in the West, the interlocking trading and communications networks of the
twenty-rst century with their benets have made war, if not impossible, then at least obsolete.
Accordingly, any future war would cost so much in lives and treasure that no rational political
leader would ever pursue it. The problem is that rationality, at least in their terms, does not exist
in much of the world outside Europe, the United States, and Japan. Saddam Hussein managed to
invade two of Iraq’s six neighbors in the space of less than ten years and sparked three wars in the
period he ruled. The rst of his wars against Iran resulted in approximately 250 thousand Iraqi
deaths and half a million Iranian dead, while his wars against his own people killed upwards of 100
thousand. In historical terms, globalization is not the norm for human affairs.
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Part II: Trends Influencing the World’s Security
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Latin Americans moving north to the United States
and Canada, and citizens of the Philippines and India
providing the labor and small commercial backbones
of the economies of the Gulf States. Equally important
are the migrations occurring in war torn areas in Africa
in areas like the Sudan, Somalia,
Darfur, Rwanda. Such migrations
disrupt patterns of culture, politics,
and economics and in most cases
carry with them the potential of
further dislocations and troubles.
Everywhere, people are
moving to cities. Skilled workers,
doctors, and engineers are leaving
the undeveloped world as fast as
they can to make a living in the
developed world. Increasingly,
these global diasporas connect
through the internet and telephone
to their home countries. Often,
the money they send back to their
families forms major portions of the
local economies back in their home
communities.
B. Globalization
For the most part, the
developed world recognizes that it
has a major stake in the continuing
progress of globalization. e same
can be said for those moving into
the developed world. Nevertheless,
one should not ignore the histories
and passions of popular opinion
in these states as they make their
appearance. One should not confuse
developed world trappings for an
underlying stability and maturity
of civil societies. A more peaceful
cooperative world is only possible if
the pace of globalization continues.
In particular, this means engaging
China and other nations politically
and culturally as they enter into the
developed world.
e critics of globalization
often portray its dark side in
the inequality of rich and poor. In some worst-case
scenarios, they portray the rise of resentment and
violence throughout the world as a direct result of
globalization. Not surprisingly, the future is likely to
contain both good and bad as globalization accelerates
the pace of human interaction and extends its reach.