Threat Assessment
Data from two recent studies suggest that at least some
approachers — and attackers — of public officials/figures show
an interest in more than one target.
5
U.S. Secret Service
experience indicates that a number of would-be Presidential
assassins, such as Arthur Bremer and John Hinckley, considered
several targets, and changed targets, before finally making an
attack. Data on relationship stalking murders and workplace
violence murders point to suicide, as well as homicide, as a
possible outcome.
6
These examples suggest that, in some cases,
the perpetrator may ultimately become his or her own final target.
The threat of sanctions, such as a long prison sentence, may not
deter a person who desperately desires revenge or is prepared to
die to achieve his objective. Passage of enforceable laws that
define and prohibit behaviors that could presage violent attacks is
one important step in preventing such attacks. Forty-nine States
have passed anti-stalking laws in the past four years, and the
National Institute of Justice, together with the National Criminal
Justice Association, published a model anti-stalking law.
7
Additionally, authorities in some jurisdictions are reviewing
various threat and harassment laws to determine whether they
might apply to threat-of-violence situations. However, laws by
themselves are unlikely to prevent stalking, workplace, or public
figure-centered violence, unless law enforcement and security
professionals know how to identify, evaluate, and manage
persons at risk of committing these violent acts.
5
Dietz, P.E. and D.A. Martell, Mentally Disordered Offenders in Pursuit of
Celebrities and Politicians, National Institute of Justice, Washington, D.C.,
1989, 83-NI-AX-0005; Dietz, P.E., D.B. Matthews, D.A. Martell, T.M.
Stewart, D.R. Hrouda and J. Warren, Threatening and Otherwise Inappropriate
Letters to Members of the United States Congress, Journal of Forensic
Sciences, 36 (September 5, 1991):1445-1468; Dietz, P.E., D.B. Matthews, C.
Van Duyne, D.A. Martell, C.D.H. Parry, T.M. Stewart, J. Warren and J.D.
Crowder, Threatening and Otherwise Inappropriate Letters to Hollywood
Celebrities, Journal of Forensic Sciences, 36 (January 1, 1991):185-209; and
Fein, R.A. and B. Vossekuil, The Secret Service Exceptional Case Study
Project: An Examination of Violence Against Public Officials and Public
Figures, National Institute of Justice, study in progress, 92-CX-0013.
6
For example, both Thomas McIlvane, in the Royal Oak, Michigan post
office attack, and Alan Winterbourne, in the Oxnard, California unemployment
office attack, killed themselves.
7
National Criminal Justice Association, Project to Develop a Model Anti-
Stalking Code for States, National Institute of Justice, Washington, D.C., 1993.
Dealing with Workplace Violence94